^^ and Zoth is right.
LD'ing is certainly a question of probability, but with careful and diligent work you reduce that probability dramatically... in a sense, and using Zoth's analogy, as you learn to LD and get your mind prepared to become lucid (and work with the state), you are reducing the amount of numbers on that roulette wheel from uncounted thousands to just a manageable few.
So, probability: Yes. But dedication (aka:effort) to the art will reduce that probability, so the appearances of LD's will seem less like a fanatically lucky moment than a relatively common moment for which you prepared, and about which you feel successful and not lucky.
...But Zoth already said all that...
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