Thread: The Singularity Is Near!

Woah.

Yeah, that was a hard read to say the least.
If anyone is remotely interested in science, technology, or 'futurists,' (That is, someone that tries to predict the future) I highly recommend reading The Singularity Is Near by Ray Kurzweil if you haven't already. The predictions he makes seem far-fetched, to say the least. He puts the date of his 'Singularity,' that is, when a point is reached where technical progress will be so fast that unenhanced human intelligence will be unable to follow it, (Read the book and it will make sense) to occur around 2045. However, that will supposedly be the culmination of many breakthroughs in technology, including genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.

Personally, I'm not sure if I completely believe it. Kurzweil promises completely realistic virtual reality (As in The Matrix) by the late 2020's, or being able to live indefinitely by the late 2030's. We'll be able to sit in the bottom of a pool for hours on end thanks to improved nanobots for red blood cells (Supposedly, a model is already made for a nanobot that is hundreds of thousands of times more efficient than our original red blood cells) reverse aging, eliminate any disease, change our bodies or personalities at will, among many other things.

I'm convinced, though, that if ANY of this happens, we're in for quite a ride.

I have to say that sounds quite interesting.

And yet, I have to wonder what the negative effects would be. Would people change their own personalities to the point that everyone was exactly the same? As perfect as technology allowed? Would our lives change for better or worse?

I guess I have to wait until 2045 to find out.

One Word:

E-Book

One more word:

Downloading

even if all those things did become a reality in those said times, it wont make a difference in OUR lives. I can bet only the rich will only afford them, and the rest of us will have less and less power with our dollar >:0 and shitty health care

An intrigueing concept. I'd really like to believe that mankind has such great potential. I mean don't get me wrong, we've come along way in terms of technology in the last 100 years, but ever-changing society, intolerance, mistrust, and of course our ever present companion 'terrorism' I can't see us getting past our own prejudices.

I think I'll have a read, see if these predictions are backed up by any evidence other than "I'm magic, believe what I say." And yeah, it'll probably only be available to the rich. But it'll be ok if we all make friends with Bill Gates.

That's what surprised me about the book. The author backed up his claims with statistics. He's been writing this kind of book for years now, and each one has been proven true. You'd figure that his 'Moore's Law,' the law that states that in X number of years, the rate of technology's progress will have increased exponentially. Ray Kurzweil says that by 2014, we will have made 20 years' worth of progress in 14, and 20 years' progress more in only 7, then 3.5, etc. But each time it's been proven correct.

Also, juroara, these things would be expensive at first. But, then again, wasn't everything expensive at first? The microwave, the PC, the DVD player, they all started out huge and expensive. I doubt these nano-robots would stay expensive for long, since they would have to be made automatically. Basically, we'd pay for the cost of materials - and, in this case, is almost nothing.

Originally Posted by FreshBrains

That's what surprised me about the book. The author backed up his claims with statistics. He's been writing this kind of book for years now, and each one has been proven true. You'd figure that his 'Moore's Law,' the law that states that in X number of years, the rate of technology's progress will have increased exponentially. Ray Kurzweil says that by 2014, we will have made 20 years' worth of progress in 14, and 20 years' progress more in only 7, then 3.5, etc. But each time it's been proven correct.

Also, juroara, these things would be expensive at first. But, then again, wasn't everything expensive at first? The microwave, the PC, the DVD player, they all started out huge and expensive. I doubt these nano-robots would stay expensive for long, since they would have to be made automatically. Basically, we'd pay for the cost of materials - and, in this case, is almost nothing.
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Technological advance does follow an exponential trend, so I would not be surprised if something like mentioned in the original post did happen.

/me tries to find a copy of this book.



Sounds very interesting though!


"Kurzweil promises completely realistic virtual reality (As in The Matrix) by the late 2020's, or being able to live indefinitely by the late 2030's."



I really hope this guy is right

An MMORPG in this Virtual Reality + unquestionable life... = *speechless*

Parhaps I should freeze myself until 2020...


The next step in evolution, anyone?

What I think we need to realise is that this guy, a "futurist", essentially makes his money from making interesting, far-fetched, sensationalist predictions. Just think about it: the more fascinating and sensationalist a claim such a futurist book makes about the future, the more likely it is to be more widely read and things said about how interesting it is. I'd take the book with a hefty pucketload of salt.

True, his book wouldn't sell if he went about saying things like "Nothing particularly interesting is going to happen over the next few decades...they might invent a new kind of yogurt but that's about it."

But still, its nice to dream. I mean there's never been any doubt in my mind that mankind will make some pretty impressive technological breakthroughs, if our own petty wars or natural disasters don't wipe us out first. I just didn't think it would happen within my lifetime.

Well, in 20 years and I have the rest of eternity to look forward to, I shall take my hat off to him and his predictions. (Of course the world's population with a life time's expectancy of forever will lead to some serious overcrowding issues&#33

It wouldn't be surprising if these things did come to pass though. We've recently made a device that allows invisibility. Its not perfect yet, but its there and it works. It can make an item invisible to the human eye. Which is amazing. So these ideas are not all that farfetched if you think about it.

Thats not saying they will happen, but it wouldn't be surprising if they did.

In 8 years, we will be at the time the movie 'back to the future' was set in... we don't have flying skateboards and cars... JUST YET!!11!11

People ALWAYS (ok, quite often) are way too optimistic about the future, I would think that someone that took the time to write a book would realize that. It seems quite silly to think that at this rate we will life forever at 2030.

However, technology Might indeed surpass all human understanding... that would be interesting...

not always

I reffer you to the multitud of horror-fiction works

I read this a while back (I think there is another thread on it around here, somewhere) and yeah, I agree that his dates are probably way off.

But, given everything we know about technology now, our species' desire to advance exponentially and the recklessness with which we often go about "advancing" ourselves and our capabilities, I wouldn't be surprised if these things did come to pass.

http://www.dreamviews.com/forum/inde...howtopic=28434