Thread: Gerald Celente: What kind of economic trend forecaster predicts the end of time?

YouTube - Gerald Celente's Top Predictions for 2011

Does this guy know what he is talking about?

Everyone swears by this guy and Peter Schiff. How accurate are their preditions.

Well, Peter Schiff accurately predicted the financial collapse, even being ridiculed for it by basically everyone. Youtube "Peter Schiff was right". Not only did he predict it, he explained how and why it would happen. Schiff has a level of macroeconomic understanding that simply does not exist in most academic circles.

Damn he called it, on the news nonetheless.
But guessing that we will have "a crackdown on liberty, crime waves,etc" doesn't make him a profit, anyone who is even partially aware of the political trends since 9/11 can guess that.

I'd rather trust Schiff than Celente. Celente seems a bit wacky to me. Schiff has some relation to the Austrian school, even if not everything he says is in line with Austrian methodology or thought. I'm not sure about Celente in that regard.

Fact is, Schiff and those adhering to Austrian economics called the crisis years before it happened. Ron Paul was warning people about a bubble back in the early-mid 2000s.

My hubby listens to all those guys, which is one reason he's been stockpiling ammo, food, water, pennies (1982 and earlier) and nickels (any year). He would like some gold, but he didn't buy in time.
He also has things like solar panels, generators and things to process raw food (coffee, wheat and such)

I'm not an economist, but all i get from Peter Schiff is that the value of the dollar is going down, and gold/silver is going up. Also, i understand the country is in debt trillions of dollars. Money is owed to foreign banks/creditors. Why does the government even need to borrow money from somewhere else. I know most of this economic talk is way over my head, just wanted like a layman's explanation of what's going on.

All I know is that there are no jobs, gas prices are getting higher once again ( inflation ) and peoples houses are getting foreclosed like crazy.

Wouldn't it be wise to invest in silver or gold now? I'm hearing that Utah recognizes gold and silver coins as legal tender now, which if I'm not mistaken is worth MORE than the U.S. dollar.

This is all just haemorrhaging due to oil production peaking. What we'll be looking at is a bumpy decline with a bunch of commentators blaming secondary factors. Only a few days ago some commentator was on I think BBC news and had the audacity to say that 'nobody predicted oil prices would be this high'. These people are simply ignorant of the larger picture, having spent their lives fussing over details.

Originally Posted by Xei

This is all just haemorrhaging due to oil production peaking. What we'll be looking at is a bumpy decline with a bunch of commentators blaming secondary factors. Only a few days ago some commentator was on I think BBC news and had the audacity to say that 'nobody predicted oil prices would be this high'. These people are simply ignorant of the larger picture, having spent their lives fussing over details.

Uh, no. Peak oil is a myth. What's really happening is the US empire and all of its tributary states (like in Western Europe) are collapsing under the pressure of hyper-statism. Entitlements, debt, interest on debt, wars, etc. Everything that's happening is due to the collapse of the empire.

Originally Posted by cmind

Uh, no. Peak oil is a myth. What's really happening is the US empire and all of its tributary states (like in Western Europe) are collapsing under the pressure of hyper-statism. Entitlements, debt, interest on debt, wars, etc. Everything that's happening is due to the collapse of the empire.

My mistake, there is infinite oil underground.

Derp.

Originally Posted by Xei

My mistake, there is infinite oil underground.

Derp.

You're just a statist troll. I'm not going to feed you.

EDIT: Nice vid, blueline. Unfortunately, I fear that trolls like Xei won't see it as an opportunity to learn about resource economics; rather they'll try to poke holes in bad faith.

Originally Posted by cmind

You're just a statist troll. I'm not going to feed you.

EDIT: Nice vid, blueline. Unfortunately, I fear that trolls like Xei won't see it as an opportunity to learn about resource economics; rather they'll try to poke holes in bad faith.

I don't think calling Xei a "statist troll" helps. He's correct, infinite oil doesn't exist underground. But the price system plays a huge role in determining the use of resources. Even if some sort of "peak oil" situation did occur/is occurring/will occur, it's not the end of the world.

I found this video to be illuminating. It doesn't explicitly focus on oil, but mentions it in a greater presentation on running out of resources.

Peak oil may happen, but peak energy will never happen (unless there's a nuclear war).

Originally Posted by cmind

Peak oil may happen

Peak oil is a myth

Also you're a 'statist troll' despite having said nothing at all about politics

Basically you're a massive idiot? Make some goddamn sense please.

Originally Posted by Xei

Basically you're a massive idiot? Make some goddamn sense please.

There are two popular definitions for peak oil. The technical definition, which may come to pass some time this century, is literally crude oil production peaking. Says nothing about alternatives. The other definition used by armchair economists such as yourself is actually peak ENERGY. You say "peak oil", but you mean "peak energy".

So yes, literally peak oil may happen. As in, crude oil production peaks. But when or if that does happen, it will also coincide with the rise of alternative fuels. And no, I'm not talking about goddamn corn ethanol.

By the way, I think I've demonstrated my intellect quite sufficiently to be apportioned a bit more leeway in the way I use terms. But then again, how could I expect someone like you to argue in good faith, rather than this semantics bullshit you've dredged up from your simian cortex.

Originally Posted by cmind

There are two popular definitions for peak oil.

In your head? Stop trying to salvage a sinking ship...

I doubt we will run out of resources but the question is when they get scarce who's country has the right to use the remaining supply of whatever the given resource is. We don't have to use our imagination to realize that wealthy industrialized countries will claim their economy is the most significant and most deserving of the resources.

Originally Posted by stormcrow

I doubt we will run out of resources but the question is when they get scarce who's country has the right to use the remaining supply of whatever the given resource is. We don't have to use our imagination to realize that wealthy industrialized countries will claim their economy is the most significant and most deserving of the resources.

I was talking to this guy like a month ago, he said that California is already using solar panels to power entire houses now. So maybe that is the future of resources....solar energy. That can be nothing but a positive thing because well...it's unlimited, and free.

Yes Cali is using alot of wind energy as well but the problem with solar energy is we have to mine the cadmium that makes solar panels work from somewhere(Africa).
It isnt an unlimited resource but a waaaay better alternative to burning coal.
Also solar panels don't last forever and need to be replaced ever so often

1. I dredged up a semantics argument? Herpaderp? You just spent your whole post based on the baseless assertion of a semantic confusion. I wasn't talking about peak energy, I was talking about peak oil? I've never talked about anything remotely semantic, you just invented it all. Stop with the dishonesty or stop talking to me.

2. Oil 'may' peak? So you think there may be an infinite oil well underground? Why are you equivocating this?

3. Out of interest which fuels are you talking about?

People need to learn to make do with less energy! It is interesting that there are 5 nuclear reactors in Japan right now in danger of melting down. We only hear about one of them on the news, but there are 5. Having lived in Tokyo, you could supply the whole U.S.A. with electricity for one night the amount that Tokyo uses in one night. Tokyo is as bright as daytime all night. We don't need to be using that much energy. All the energy I use is a small tank of propane every two months here in the winter of Colorado.

It's up to 6 now: Japan earthquake, Fukushima Daiichi, No. 1: Another Japan nuclear reactor fails - latimes.com.


EDIT:

Saying that they're in danger of a melt down seems to be overstating it. The control rods are in place and the nuclear reactions have stopped. It's just taking a few days for them to cool down. All primary containment is in place.

I wouldn't trust this guy. The stuff on his blog is questionable.

Although...it is prudent to prepare at least somewhat. Given our current track, the system is bound to come down for a large number of potential reasons.