I think there is a correlation, though as you say, everyone's different. I had about three months of unsuccessful trying before my first WILD. I think since most beginners don't have experience to draw on, they don't know what to expect and a lot of times end up making the same mistakes. Translating from text to real experience is tricky at the least, especially when you're new and excited and want to start dreaming.
I never really did WBTB, but an alarm did wake me up. Then I would lie on my back (because I had read that was the most successful position) and started counting breaths or something. Each feeling would be carefully analyzed for signs of SP or HI. I would get so uncomfortable, though, that I would end up losing sleep and rolling over to sleep normally. One night I kind of lucked into my first WILD, which also happened to be a nightmare! That set me back awhile. But I've learned a few things since then. One is what a lot of guides say but too many don't--you can't be completely aware and conscious like you expect. You have to fall asleep to some extent to get to a dream. Another, more recent development, is that I can only WILD on weekends. It's just something about my sleep schedules, but when I tried during the week I would get needlessly discouraged.
Right now, my WILD strategy relies heavily on DEILD, which I think is really the way to go, but WILDing lets you initiate a string of dreams. Basically, after I wake up, I'll try holding still and remembering if I was dreaming. If not, or if I get uncomfortable, I'll just move and fall asleep normally. I can either WILD or DILD after that, then when I feel the dream fade I'll wake up and have a truly amazing string of dreams.
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