Thread: A Guy In Spain Dreamed The Pope Would Be Named Francis A Month Ago

Originally Posted by zoth00

My opinion:

Situation 1 (the pope):

One sentence. About an event that happened to other person. Who is spanish...and dreamed about the 4th most common spanish name. And above all that: I'm sure Pope wouldn't resign and tell the media all in a interval of around 8 hours (which is around the space of time between the tweet and the first news about the resignation). So one thing is clear: he didn't had any precognition dream about the pope resigning. At most, he had one about it showing up in the news.

How is it safe to say that these are precognitions and not coincidences? Coincidences like this happen in the thousands every day due the natural characteristics of our dream content. On what basis do we rule out coincidence in this case? Careful analysis or unreliable intuition?

Zoth00,

Did you read the article I attached??? The guy dreamed 1 month before the Pope Resigned. That the Pope was going to Resign and his replacement would be named "Frances I". I think only one other Pope in history has resigned/retired. Plus the guy named the new Pope. Way too much to be a coincidence...

Did you read the article I attached???

Yes...

The guy dreamed 1 month before the Pope Resigned. That the Pope was going to Resign

No. He did not state that the pope was going to resign. I'm portuguese and have a easy time understanding spanish language, so please tell where have you read in that tweet that he dreamed that the pope was going to resign.

The tweet says exactly this:

My boyfriend woke up at 4am saying that he had dreamed about a new pope called "Francisco I" and today the new pope resigns! Date: february 11th, the same day the pope announced his resignation.

This just to show that there is no prediction about a resignation, and that he had the dream after the pope decided to resign. Which leaves us with only a name of a new pope. And in case of such delicate subjects, like precognition dreams, you have to work with exactly you're given. Even though we can probably infer that he dreamed with a pope resignation, inferring that does not count as a fact.

But still, that does not invalidate any other points. And it's quite a fallacy saying that just because it seems too much to be a coincidence, it can't be a coincidence. Well, guess what, it can. Especially because we go into a statistical analysis of coincidences on these dreams, the sample is so huge that the probability of coincidence is much higher than you think.Literally, there's so many creepy coincidences happening every day related to dreams, why would you think this is another situation? Because it seems "too much to be a coincidence"?

Originally Posted by zoth00

Yes...



No. He did not state that the pope was going to resign. I'm portuguese and have a easy time understanding spanish language, so please tell where have you read in that tweet that he dreamed that the pope was going to resign.

The tweet says exactly this:

My boyfriend woke up at 4am saying that he had dreamed about a new pope called "Francisco I" and today the new pope resigns! Date: february 11th, the same day the pope announced his resignation.

This just to show that there is no prediction about a resignation, and that he had the dream after the pope decided to resign. Which leaves us with only a name of a new pope. And in case of such delicate subjects, like precognition dreams, you have to work with exactly you're given. Even though we can probably infer that he dreamed with a pope resignation, inferring that does not count as a fact.

But still, that does not invalidate any other points. And it's quite a fallacy saying that just because it seems too much to be a coincidence, it can't be a coincidence. Well, guess what, it can. Especially because we go into a statistical analysis of coincidences on these dreams, the sample is so huge that the probability of coincidence is much higher than you think.Literally, there's so many creepy coincidences happening every day related to dreams, why would you think this is another situation? Because it seems "too much to be a coincidence"?

What are you talking about? The time of the tweet was 5:06 A.M. Spain time. That is 5 hours ahead of the U.S. The tweet was before he announced his resignation announcement. That means the name was predicted and the resignation which hasn't happened in hundreds of years.

Originally Posted by hurricane1124

What are you talking about? The time of the tweet was 5:06 A.M. Spain time. That is 5 hours ahead of the U.S. The tweet was before he announced his resignation announcement.

I'm talking about the fact the fact that the boyfriend:

- Didn't state anything about him having dreamed about any resignation;
- Had the dream (most likely) AFTER the pope decided to resign. Deciding to Resign as a pope and announcing his intention of resigning is not something you do in a space of a couple hours. Besides, the statement that he dreamed about it 1 month before the pope resigned is not relevant to the discussion, because in the subject of precognition, we only care about the information coming to the subject's knowledge, which was the announcement of resignation. I think you're missing the point of the argument.

Originally Posted by zoth00

I'm talking about the fact the fact that the boyfriend:

- Didn't state anything about him having dreamed about any resignation;
- Had the dream (most likely) AFTER the pope decided to resign. Deciding to Resign as a pope and announcing his intention of resigning is not something you do in a space of a couple hours. Besides, the statement that he dreamed about it 1 month before the pope resigned is not relevant to the discussion, because in the subject of precognition, we only care about the information coming to the subject's knowledge, which was the announcement of resignation. I think you're missing the point of the argument.

No, the tweet was BEFORE the announcement. Also do you ever consider that when you tell people something and then put it into speech that they don't really care to be SUPER exact. She said "pope resignation today". That is still a hefty prediction and also combined with the heftiness of the prediction of the name. Do you really hate someone when you say it or are you just frustrated with them, the answer is you are frustrated (most of the time). That is why you can't look for complete exactness all the time, it's not how things are usually explained. Also Do you consider the odds of this happening. This is the problem with statistical analysis a lot. The odds of flipping a coin and it landing on tails 5 trillion times in a row are out of this world and you can not even fathom this happening, but it is nonetheless POSSIBLE. This is irrelevant however. Because of this irrelevancy, it is important to look at just huge odds in general happening over and over again with dreams like this. I once had a dream that i was putting on a golf course. The next day I putted in the EXACT same way and nothing was different at all. That means that you also have to think about the odds of everything else that could have probably happened that day which are FAR greater than of what occurred. That is why statistical analysis is not right to a large extent. Let's say that you experience a precognitive dream 1 out of every 200 dreams. Think about how many of these dreams show you things that you never see and then just randomly happen. Another dream I dreamt that there were 3 hats on a shelve. I woke up, went in the car, and my 2 brothers and their friend were all wearing hats. The thing is that none of them ever wear hats. The friend said that his dad had bought the hats the day before. Think about the "statistical analysis of that compared to the statistical analysis that you are proposing and think about the ratio of precognitive dreams per even 400 regular dreams. Also think of the insurmountable odds of other things that could happen. Finally think about the exactness of real life compared to the dreams while comparing the "dream ratio". The "statistical analysis" that you are proposing just doesn't add up literally. Most of these dreams are NOT a coincidence, and definitely not the tweet one.