So recently I've been thinking about starting up an experiment. I've only done this once before, and im not to sure what to make of the results. This was done roughly 2 years ago. Bascially what I did was simple.
-I took a deck of cards
-shuffled and cut the deck several times
-drew a card at random (face down)
-without looking at the identity of the card, i taped the card to my window (facing outside)
-I then would induce an "OBE" or whatever you want to call it.
-while out of body, I would float through the wall and look at my window from the outside, thus seeing the identity of the "dream card"
-I then would wake myself up, untape the actual card from my window, and look at the identity of it.
-From there id write down the results
The results were as follows:
The first number represents the number seen in the OBE, the second represents the actual number of the card:
T1. 2 clubs, 7 spades (0 pts)
T2. Queen clubs, Queen spades (2 pts: 1/26)
T3. Jack (red suit), Jack clubs (1 pt: 1/13)
T4. 3 hearts, 2 clubs (1 pt)
T5. Ace hearts, 3 hearts (2 pts: 1/4)
T6. (1)Ace clubs, Queen spades (2 pts: 1/2)
T7. 7 hearts, 3 spades (0 pts)
T8. Queen hearts, Jack diamonds (8 pts: 1/2)
T9. King (red suit), King diamonds (3 pts: 1/26)
T10. 9 hearts, 6 Hearts (3 pts: 1/2)
T11. Ace hearts, Ace clubs (1 pt: 1/13)
T12. King clubs, Jack clubs (4 pts: 1/4)
If you are wondering what the other numbers are, for example "(4 pts)", that was a rudimentary attempt to develope a point system based on how easily cards could be confused with one another, given the fluidity/ unstability of the projections. here it is:
Point System
1.) Same Color Suit
-Clubs and Spades (2pt)
-Hearts and diamonds (2pt)
2.) Face Cards
-Suited Queens and Jacks: Diamonds only (5 pts)
-Queens and Jacks: Any other combo (2 pts)
-Suited Kings and Queens: Hearts, Clubs, and Spades (5 pts)
-Kings and Queens: Any other suit (2pts)
Kings and Jacks: Spades, Hearts, Diamonds (3 pts)
-Kings and Jacks: Clubs (2 pts)
3.)6's and 9's (1pt)
Aces and 4's (1 pt)
4.)Cards Within One increment away
- Facecards (2 pts)
-8's and 9's (2 pts)
-All other combos (1 pt)
*the higher the point value, the higher the extent that Astral-fulidity could have effected the results. Apply all results to the point system and add all point that apply, together. Any other factors i have left out are because i already know the probabilties behind them (exact suit, exact increment, etc)
1 pt total = Low extent/chance that astral instability affectd the results
5 pts total = Decent extent/chance that astral instabilitly affected the results
10 pts total= Very high extent/chance that astral instability affected the results
The other numbers, ex. "1/4", were an attempt at formulating probabilities for the results. For example, in trial 2 both were queens (probability of which was 4/52, or 1/13), and both were black suits (a probability of 26/52, or 1/2). But as you can see, my math was applied wrong, and was possibly "forcing" the results to be better than they actually were. After becomming aware of this, I had someone calculate the probabilities out for me correctly. His results were as follows:
First of all I believe you experiement is not luck only but that there is something going on, secondly, I'm sorry to say it as well, but your calculation is crap. (dont get angry or dissapointed now!) but believe me, it is totally wrong.
You can not calculate like you did, but it is kind of hard to explain why. I'll try by an analogy: Lets say you do 52 trails and try to guess the corect card (1 out of 52) lets assume you hit once and miss 51 times. This would obviously be nothing special, it would exactly be what one expects!
But if I use your methode I can figure something like the following:
No Hit: probability 51/52 did happen 51 times
Hit 1/52 did happen one time
this adds up to ((51/52)^51)*(1/52) = 0.007......equals about 1/142
Now you do the whole thing again, lets assume same result:
Now, you could figure (1/142)^2 = 1/20164 probabilty
basic math! but nonsense, cause the calculation is wrongly interpreted! or would you say hitting two times the right card out of 104 trails is something special? think about it! it does not work like that.
Cause what you do, is calculating the probabilty of the exact experiment outcome you get, which is not in any way meaningfull cause any experiment outcome will be very unlikely to repete itself, therefore the probabilty will always be very small and look like something special even though it is not. I Hope you see were I'm getting at.............
You need a thesis: lets say "I can hit the value (2,5,7,J,Q...) correct" then do 10 trails count the hits in ratio to the no-hits and if that ratio is above 1/13 then you have something. if you hit like 1/4 or something then you have some kind of statistic relevant succes.
O.K. I did some analysis on your results)
Values of the cards (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,J,Q,K,A)
You got 3 hits out of 10 trails = 30% hits
Simply guessing should lead to 1 out 13 = 7.7% hits
First thought, not bad!
Symbols (hearts, spades…)
You got 2 out of 6 (4 times you did only guess the color) =33% hits
Simply guessing should lead to 1 out of 4 = 25% hits
First thought, not significant, but at least above 25%
Colors
You got 7 out of 10 = 70 % hits
Simply guessing should lead to 1 out of 2 = 50% hits
First thought, not significant, but at least above 50%
Comment
All probabilities are above the guessing values but only the first (values) seems significantly above the expected number, therefore I’ll look at this a bit more closely.
Value of the cards, how good is your result really? We can say something about this, if we look at the chance to guess your result by chance. On average, how many times will a computer score 3 or more hits if he tries to guess the values of 10 playing cards?
This is calculated as follows:
Probability to guess 0 out of 10 is (12/13)^10 = 45%
Probability to guess 1 out of 10 is (12/13)^9*(1/13)*10 = 37% (one needs to multiple by 10 because there are 10 different ways to score 1 hit and 9 misses out of 10 trails!)
Probability to guess 2 out of 10 is (12/13)^8*(1/13)^2 *45 = 14% (one needs to multiple by 45 because there are 45 different ways to score 2 hits and 8 misses out of 10 trails!)
This adds up to about 96% which means 96% of the time a computer would score 2 or less hits if he performs 10 trails, which means if one is guessing one will only score 3 or more hits in 4 % of the attempts, which means it is pretty likely you did not just guess the cards but perceive some info about the real cards while out of body.
The chance you did not leave you body is below 4%! That’s it! That’s the result! It’s a success, I would say!
But, 10 trails are way too few to say much anyway!
Cheers Tom
o.k. I'm know I'm crazy..........
I calculated the colors as well. 7 hits out of 10, doing this by chance will happen on 17,2% of the trails. The symbols can not be considered since the colors and the symvols are not independent Variables. The colors and the values(from above) can be multiplied though, since they are independent.
0.172*0.04=0.00688=0.688%
This means that there is a chance below 1% that you just guessed the cards!
If you want more prove, you need to do another 10 trails.......
And I began doing another ten trials (T11 and T12), but stopped for some reason. Anywho, I want to start it back up again. But to simplify things, I’m thinking about changing the experiment a bit. I may use a set of dice (or even 1) instead of cards since there would only be one variable to worry about. I suppose I would need to the following:
-put a set of dice in a small opaque box w/ a lid
-shake it up
-OBE and open the box to see what number the dice are
-wake up and check the actual dice
-record results, calculate probabilities
But before I do this, I would like to brush up on me EP skills…plus I need to buy some dice. Keep and eye out!
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